My 2011-2012 Oscar Predictions – Part 1: The Outliers

And so another set of Oscar predictions for a new set of Oscar nominees.  Some interesting choices for many of the categories, but which will win?  I’m out to break last years prediction score of 67%, and I think I can do it!  Here we go!

Part 1: The Outliers
This group is made up of the categories celebrating whole films which are not up for Best Picture.  They are usually the “forgotten” films at the Oscars, but also the toughest to predict because so little about them is known.  I didn’t do too hot on them last year, so hopefully I can turn that around this year.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
A Cat in Paris (GKIDS), Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
Chico & Rita (GKIDS), Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
Kung Fu Panda 2 (DreamWorks Animation), Jennifer Yuh Nelson
Puss In Boots (DreamWorks Animation), Chris Miller
Rango (Paramount Pictures), Gore Verbinski

Hmm, five nominees this year, opposed to the usual three.  And none of them are Tintin, my personal favourite animated movie of the year.  And no Pixar as they went for commercial success over critical with Cars 2 this year.  And of those that are left, Rango seems like the likely winner.  Its a mainstream flick which offered something different in the animation realm.

Prediction: Rango.

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FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Bullhead (A Savage Film Production), Belgium
Footnote (Sony Pictures Classics), Israel
In Darkness (Sony Pictures Classics), Poland
Monsieur Lazhar (Music Box Films), Canada
A Separation (Sony Pictures Classics), Iran

Well, I’m sort of relying on Roger Ebert this year, who says that A Separation is simply one of the best films of the year.  I’m not sure if the academy voters agree, but I’m going to say that they well.

Prediction: A Separation

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DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Hell and Back Again (Docurama Films), Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front (Oscilloscope Laboratories), Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (A Radical.Media Production), Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky
Pina (Sundance Selects), Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel
Undefeated (The Weinstein Company), TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas

Wow, what an interesting set of predictions.  In a year with many stand-out documentaries, hardly any of them are here.  Herzog’s Into the Abyss nor his Cave of Forgotten Dreams is here, neither is Bill Cunninghm’s New York, Project Nim, or The Interrupters.  Hell and Back Again seems likely, and Undefeated has the Weinstein name attached to it, but I’m going out on  limb to say Pina.

Prediction: Pina.

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DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement, Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin
God Is the Bigger Elvis, Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson
Incident in New Baghdad, James Spione
Saving Face, Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom, Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen

Okay, so Ive decided that since I really don’t know much about short film, I would just do some research and simply go with whoever seems like the front runner.  Here that looks to be The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom.

Prediction: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom.

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ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
Dimanche/Sunday, Patrick Doyon
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore, William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg
La Luna, Enrico Casarosa
A Morning Stroll, Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe
Wild Life, Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby

Alright, so for this category I’m using an even simpler strategy: I’m going to pick the film who has the most interesting name (which should be obvious), which also happens to be the frontrunner.  This does mean I have to go against the fellow Canadians who made Wild Life, but c’est la vie.

Prediction: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

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LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
Pentecost, Peter McDonald and Eimear O’Kane
Raju, Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren
The Shore, Terry George and Oorlagh George
Time Freak, Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey
Tuba Atlantic, Hallvar Witzø

Ah, short films.  I confess to making a few myself, though I can’t see mine being nominated any time soon.  But which of these five will win? Well, inside sources (aka. doing a google search for blogs from people who know what they’re talking about more than me) tell me it will be The Shore.

Prediction: The Shore.