My 2010-2011 Oscar Predictions – Part 4: The Majors

And now for the most notable awards to be given out on Feb. 27.  Here are the acting awards, the directing award, and the big one- best picture.  I’ve really been going back and forth in my mind with that one.  Let’s see what happens.

BEST PICTURE:
Black Swan (Fox Searchlight Pictures), Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
The Fighter (Paramount Pictures), David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
Inception (Warner Bros. Pictures), Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
The Kids Are All Right (Focus Features), Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company), Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
127 Hours (Fox Searchlight Pictures), Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
The Social Network (Columbia Pictures), Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
Toy Story 3 (Disney•Pixar), Darla K. Anderson, Producer
True Grit (Paramount Pictures), Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
Winter’s Bone (Roadside Attractions), Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers

Another year of ten nominees, though really this comes down to two films: The King’s Speech and The Social Network.  It really could be either one.  King’s Speech is the safe choice.  Its a period drama that is uplifting and almost tailor-made as an Oscar movie.  It doesn’t offend anyone and is built for actors to showcase their abilities, which the academy loves.

The Social Network on the other hand is the edgier choice.  This is the movie which represents the here and now generation.  It is relevant right now.  It is a wonderful film and deserves the buzz it has been getting ever since its October release.  It won the Golden Globe for best drama, however the Globes are more partial to picking the riskier films.  Only three times in the last ten years as the Oscar best pic and GG best drama been the same.

So who will it be? What is my prediction?  This is not an easy choice, but which film do I think the Oscar will go to?………  I think the academy will wuss out.  They will go with the safe period drama and give this to The King’s Speech.  They will feel like they were edgy enough last year with The Hurt Locker that they wont want to push it.

Prediction: The King’s Speech

–

DIRECTING:
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
David O. Russell – The Fighter (Paramount Pictures)
Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company)
David Fincher – The Social Network (Columbia Pictures)
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen – True Grit (Paramount Pictures)

Now, The Social Network may or may not win best picture, but regardless I believe that Fincher will win for directing.  Like I said last year, they are due for another BP/BD split.  They haven’t had one since 2005.   So even if the bigger award goes to King’s Speech, I can’t see them giving Tom Hooper best director over Fincher.

Prediction: The Social Network

–

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Javier Bardem – Biutiful (Roadside Attractions)
Jeff Bridges – True Grit (Paramount Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network (Columbia Pictures)
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company)
James Franco – 127 Hours (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Bardem and Bridges both have Oscars under their belts already, so they are not likely to win this year.  Eisenburg and Franco are nice to see here.  They are both great young actors.  Yet the academy may expect to see them back in this category (though Eisenburg probably deserves a win this year).  This will be Colin Firth’s year.  He is a widely respected actor who has yet to pick up a little golden man.

Prediction: The King’s Speech

–

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right (Focus Features)
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole (Lionsgate)
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone (Roadside Attractions)
Natalie Portman – Black Swan (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine (The Weinstein Company)

It looks like this will probably go to Natalie Portman.  As a Star Wars fan, this makes me happy.  Black Swan allowed her a chance for a dark, disturbing performance which will probably win over the voters.  This seems like one of the easier to predict this year.

Prediction: Black Swan

–

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Christian Bale – The Fighter (Paramount Pictures)
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone (Roadside Attractions)
Jeremy Renner – The Town (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right (Focus Features)
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company)

Christian Bale is a dedicated actor and it looks like the time has come for him to be rewarded for that.  I don’t know much about John Hawkes, I don’t know why Renner’s uninspired performance is nominated, and though Ruffalo’s performance was very charming, it doesn’t seem like enough.  Geoffrey Rush however may steal this one from Bale, but likely not.

Prediction: The Fighter

–

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Amy Adams – The Fighter (Paramount Pictures)
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company)
Melissa Leo – The Fighter (Paramount Pictures)
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit (Paramount Pictures)
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom (Sony Pictures Classics)

I haven’t seen The Fighter, but from everything I hear, Melissa Leo’s performance was one of the highlights of the film.  On the other hand, there is a very strong up-and-comer performance by Steinfeld in True Grit which apparently allowed her to keep her own with Bridges.   This is really a coin toss between the two, and my quarter is landing with Leo.

Prediction: The Fighter (Melissa Leo)