My 2013-2014 Oscar Predictions – Part 4: The Majors

Now I finish my predictions with the “big 6”: the acting categories, director and of course Best Picture.

BEST PICTURE:
American Hustle (Sony), Charles Roven, Richard Suckle, Megan Ellison and Jonathan Gordon, Producers
Captain Phillips (Sony), Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti and Michael De Luca, Producers
Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features), Robbie Brenner and Rachel Winter, Producers
Gravity (Warner Bros.), Alfonso Cuarón and David Heyman, Producers
Her (Warner Bros.), Megan Ellison, Spike Jonze and Vincent Landay, Producers
Nebraska (Paramount), Albert Berger and Ron Yerxa, Producers
Philomena (The Weinstein Company), Gabrielle Tana, Steve Coogan and Tracey Seaward, Producers
12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight), Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen and Anthony Katagas, Producers
The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount), Nominees to be determined

Looking at all of my predictions so far, it would seem to make sense I’d predict Gravity to win best picture.  And though I do think it has a shot, I think the more likely candidate is the apparently powerful 12 Years a Slave.  It has the appearance of being Oscarbait, but the caveat that its actually really good from what I hear.  It appears to be the front runner, so that’s what I’m going with.

Prediction: 12 Years a Slave

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DIRECTING:
David O. Russell – American Hustle
Alfonso Cuarón – Gravity
Alexander Payne – Nebraska
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

I always seemed to predict a BP/BD split with my reasoning that it was due to happen again.  Except for last year, when it actually did happen.  So now we are no longer “due”, so I think that if 12 Years wins Best Pic, then McQueen will also win for this one.

Prediction: 12 Years a Slave

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ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Christian Bale – American Hustle
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

This is a good field this year.  But lets face it; McConaughey’s time has come.  He has been incredibly hot right now, with Dallas Buyers Club, Mud, and his stint in Wolf of Wall Street, not to mention his new HBO show taking off.  Its his year.

Prediction: Dallas Buyers Club

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ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Amy Adams – American Hustle
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Judi Dench – Philomena
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

I’ve heard great things about Cate Blanchett’s performance in Blue Jasmine.  And she seems like an Oscar-worthy actress that they are probably just chomping at the bit to recognize with a statue.

Prediction: Blue Jasmine

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ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

I dont really know with this category….  Abdi was great in his role, but I can’t see him winning.  Cooper likely wont either, nor will Hill though he was hilarious.  I think it comes down to Jared Leto and the Fass.  And since Leto won the SAG, he’s probably got it.  Its too bad, I havent seen the movie but I really can’t imagine a scenario where Jared Leto out-acts Michael Fassbender.

Prediction: Dallas Buyers Club

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ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
June Squibb – Nebraska

Jennifer Lawrence was the best part about American Hustle, and she is far and away Hollywood’s “it girl” of the moment.  She has a strong chance of winning.  However, Lupita Nyong’o has a very good chance also, with an acclaimed performance and a SAG award.  But somehow I still think this is going to Lawrence, I just can’t shake that feeling.  So I’ve gotta go with my gut.

Prediction: American Hustle