My 2013-2014 Oscar Prediction Part 1: The Outliers

Wow, I’ve been doing this for 5 years now?  Crazy.  I didn’t even realize my blog was that old…

Well here we go, another year another Oscars.  Lets see what predictions I can make this year.

Part 1: The Outliers
This group is made up of the categories celebrating whole films which are not up for Best Picture.  These involve the shorts and the special full-length features.  These can usually be the toughest predictions to make, considering the films are not that well known.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
The Croods (DreamWorks Animation), Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco
Despicable Me 2 (Universal/Imagination), Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin
Ernest and Celestine (GKids), Benjamin Renner, Didier Brunner
Frozen (Walt Disney Animation), Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee
The Wind Rises (Walt Disney), Hayao Miyazaki,Toshio Suzuki

This hasn’t been  a strong year for animation, but Disney did score a lot of points in December with their hit Frozen.  This may be Oscars chance to declare that “Disney is back” after denying their last few efforts the award, such as Wreck It Ralph and Tangled.

Prediction: Frozen

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FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Tribeca Film), Belgium
The Great Beauty (Janus Films), Italy
The Hunt (Magnolia), Denmark
The Missing Picture, Cambodia
Omar (Adopt Films) , Palestine

I still haven
‘t nailed this category down.  Do they give it to the most notorious of the nominees, or try to go more obscure.  The last two years went to Amour and A Seperation, but before that the lesser known In a Better World won over Biutiful.  But if I don’t go with the most notorious, I don’t know which other film I’d pick.  Therefore I’m going with the Denmark film The Hunt, which I’ve heard great things about.

Prediction: The Hunt

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DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
The Act of Killing (Drafthouse Films), Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen
Cutie and the Boxer (RADiUS TWC), Zachary Heinzerling and Lydia Dean Pilcher
Dirty Wars (IFC Films), Richard Rowley and Jeremy Scahill
The Square (Noujaim Films), Jehane Noujaim and Karim Amer
20 Feet From Stardom (RADiUS TWC), Nominees to be determined

I’m pretty sure Act of Killing has this wrapped up.  I’ve seen a number of Best of 2013 list on which Act of Killing on on the top (and thats not just out of docs, out of all films of the year).  And with the lack of the more well-known docu-hits Blackfish and Secrets We Tell, Act of Killing seems to have a clear path to victory.

Prediction: The Act of Killing

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DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
CaveDigger, Jeffrey Karoff
Facing Fear, Jason Cohen
Karama Has No Walls, Sara Ishaq
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life, Malcolm Clarke and Nicholas Reed
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall, Edgar Barens

This is a tough one to pick.  Looking at the subject matter, there are a few Oscarbait picks here to choose from.  Karama is about the Arab Spring, but that has began to leave the minds of Westerners by this point unfortunately.  Then there’s The Lady in Number 6, which is about both a 109 year old woman whose also a Holocaust survivor?? Oscar voters must be chomping at the bit.  However, then there’s Facing Fear which tackles Homophobia.  And lets face it, gay rights is a huge issue right now.  The Oscars snubbed Brokeback 9 years ago, but perhaps they will make up for it in some small way here (in a category almost no one pays attention to…).

Prediction: Facing Fear

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ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
Feral Daniel Sousa and Dan Golden
Get a Horse! Lauren MacMullan and Dorothy McKim
Mr. Hublot Laurent Witz and Alexandre Espigares
Possessions Shuhei Morita
Room on the Broom Max Lang and Jan Lachauer

I don’t know… I don’t think Disney will win two years in a row.  And with Frozen probably already going to win, it may be too much to also give the short that came before it (Get a Horse) a statue as well.  I have heard that Mr. Hublot is quite Pixar-like however. And the Oscars love Pixar…

Prediction: Mr. Hublot

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LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me) Esteban Crespo
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything) Xavier Legrand and Alexandre Gavras
Helium Anders Walter and Kim Magnusson
Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?) Selma Vilhunen and Kirsikka Saari
The Voorman Problem Mark Gill and Baldwin Li

I’m guessing here based off of a strong review I read for Just Before Losing Everything.  I really have no idea.

Prediction: Just Before Losing Everything