My 2012-2013 Oscar Predictions – Part 3: The Story Aspects

The third part of the predictions involves the storytelling through screenplays, editing, and then I threw in cinematography and the music categories just so they fit somewhere. Lets take a look!

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Amour, Written by Michael Haneke
Django Unchained, Written by Quentin Tarantino
Flight, Written by John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom, Written by Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty, Written by Mark Boal

Well, Tarantino did get ripped off from winning this same Oscar for Inglourious Basterds three years ago, but I think Amour also has a pretty strong shot. And then there’s Zero Dark Thirty which has a chance…

Then again, looking at the Writer’s Guild awards, Django was not even nominated.  But he did win the GG (not that that’s much of an indicator for the Oscars).  Bah, whatever, I’m choosing Django.

Prediction: Django Unchained

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ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Argo, Written by Chris Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Written by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi, Written by David Magee
Lincoln, Written by Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, Written by David O. Russell

I was enthralled with the wonderful dialogue in Lincoln and impressed with how tight they kept the focus of the narrative.  And as you will see later, I think Lincoln will be coming away with a few statues, this being one of them.

Prediction: Lincoln

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CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Seamus McGarvey – Anna Karenina
Robert Richardson – Django Unchained
Claudio Miranda – Life of Pi
Janusz Kaminski – Lincoln
Roger Deakins – Skyfall

This is one of my favourite categories.  I have a feeling that Life of Pi may  be the Hugo of this year, wrapping up a lot of tech awards.  However, then I see this interesting little nomination for Skyfall’s Roger Deakins.  Deakins has been a pretty important photographer in the movies in the last 20 years and this is his tenth nomination.  And considering this is the celebratory 50th anniversary of James Bond, I think they just might award the Oscar to him.

Prediction: Skyfall

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FILM EDITING:
William Goldenberg – Argo
Tim Squyres – Life of Pi
Michael Kahn – Lincoln
Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers – Silver Linings Playbook
Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg – Zero Dark Thirty

Argo has been cleaning up all of the secondary awards, but for reasons I will get into later I don’t think it’ll win much here.  But it was a big player in the industry this fall, and it will be recognized in one category at least, and this is probably the one it deserves the most.

Prediction: Argo

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ORIGINAL SCORE:
Dario Marianelli – Anna Karenina
Alexandre Desplat – Argo
Mychael Danna – Life of Pi
John Williams – Lincoln
Thomas Newman – Skyfall

John Williams was actually a little too understated in his score this time, while Life of Pi seems to be a movie made for a great score to lift it up.

Prediction: Life of Pi

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ORIGINAL SONG:
“Before My Time” from Chasing Ice, Music and Lyric by J. Ralph
“Everybody Needs A Best Friend” from Ted, Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
“Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi, Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
“Skyfall” from Skyfall, Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
“Suddenly” from Les Misérables, Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil

Ted…. wow.  This category, more than any other, seems to be most susceptible to fringe nominees, which is actually quite cool.  How else could South Park or Eninem be represented at the Oscars?  But sorry Ted, unlike the Three 6 Mafia, you ain’t gonna win.

However, Adele is the perfect fit for a Bond singer, with that powerful voice of hers, and the Skyfall song has been one of the best Bond openings in many years.  It is really one of those songs which sticks with you and really fits the movie its made for.

Prediction: Skyfall