My 2012-2013 Oscar Predictions – Part 4: The Majors

Now I finish my predictions with the “big 6”: the acting categories, director and of course Best Picture.

BEST PICTURE:
Amour (Sony Pictures Classics), Margaret Menegoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka and Michael Katz, Producers
Argo (Warner Bros.), Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck and George Clooney, Producers
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight), Dan Janvey, Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald, Producers
Django Unchained (The Weinstein Company), Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin and Pilar Savone, Producers
Les Misérables (Universal), Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward and Cameron Mackintosh, Producers
Life of Pi (20th Century Fox), Gil Netter, Ang Lee and David Womark, Producers
Lincoln (DreamWorks), Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Company), Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen and Jonathan Gordon, Producers
Zero Dark Thirty (Sony), Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow and Megan Ellison, Producers

A pretty solid slate of films nominated here.  Once again, only nine nominations instead of the full ten.  I like seeing Django and Zero Dark 30 there.  Although both are a little too controversial to be declared the winner by the more conservative academy.
Before the noms were announced, it was looking to be a two-way race between Linocln and Argo.  However, this changed in my mind once Ben Affleck was snubbed for a best director nomination, making it look much clearer that Lincoln will be taking home the big one.

Prediction: Lincoln

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DIRECTING:
Michael Haneke – Amour
Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook

Now this was an interesting announcement when it was revealed that both Affleck and Bigalow wer not up for best director.  I didn’t expect to see Russell there, or even Zeitlin or Haneke.  Spielberg and Lee made sense however.

And just as I think Lincoln is taking home BP, best director is going to go hand in hand (as it often does) and Spielberg will be winning his 3rd.  Lets face it, hes the most prominent director in the world, and the academy may be wondering just how many more chances they’re going to have to honour him.  I’m pretty sure he’s got this one.

Prediction: Lincoln

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ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Hugh Jackman – Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Denzel Washington – Flight

Some pleasant surprises here with Denzel and Bradley Cooper, but its going to be tough for any of these nominees to beat out Daniel Day Lewis in another outstanding performance.  The man is a powerhouse come Oscar time, and his portrayal of Lincoln was a delight to watch.

Prediction: Lincoln

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ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts – The Impossible

I think its neat that the oldest and youngest nominees ever were both given nods in the same category in the same year.  But, the Oscars like to award this statue to young actresses at the beginning of an already promising career.  However, two actresses fit that bill; Chastain and Lawrence.  But I think Jessica Chastain has simply done more in her career at this point in time, and she pretty much carried her movie.  She will likely win.

Prediction: Zero Dark Thirty

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ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

Now THIS is a tough category.  Five very worthy candidates, but only one can win.  All of them have previously won in this category.  Now, I’ll tell you who I’d LIKE to win.  Christoph Waltz was one of the best supporting performances of the year.  He made Django work, in my opinion.  But I have a feeling its coming down to Tommy Lee Jones and Philip Seymour Hoffman, both of whom were in performance heavy films this year.  I really enjoyed Jones in Lincoln, but I think I see Hoffman edging him out.

Prediction: The Master

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ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Amy Adams – The Master
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Jacki Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook

I haven’t seen Les Mis, nor do I plan to.  However, I have heard amazing things about Hathaway’s close-up singing scene which is supposed to be all kinds of powerful.  For everything I read and hear about it, that scene alone is enough to win her the award.  Besides, the Oscars needs to make it up to her after sticking her on stage with James Franco a couple years ago.

Prediction: Les Miserables