My 2012-2013 OScar Predictions – Part 1: The Outliers

This has been an interesting crop of nominees for the 2012-2013 Oscars.  Its time for my fourth annual set of predictions.  As always, I will be discussing my picks for the awards over four posts, and the I will write up a fifth posts after the awards show with the results.

Part 1: The Outliers
This group is made up of the categories celebrating whole films which are not up for Best Picture.  These involve the shorts and the special full-length features.  These can usually be the toughest predictions to make, considering the films are not that well known.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
Brave (Disney•Pixar), Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
Frankenweenie (Walt Disney Pictures), Tim Burton
ParaNorman (Focus Features), Sam Fell and Chris Butler
The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony), Peter Lord
Wreck-It Ralph (Walt Disney Pictures), Rich Moore

Before the nominations came out, I thought that Studio Ghibi would take home their second win with Secret World of Arrietty, but apparently it wasn’t even nominated.  I know that Wreck It Ralph is the favourite in this category, but I still think that Pixar is going to take this one once more with Brave.  Even though many found it to be a disappointment, it was still a well-constructing film and looked amazingly beautiful.

Prediction: Brave

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FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Amour (Sony Pictures Classics), Austria
Kon-Tiki (The Weinstein Company), Norway
No (Sony Pictures Classics), Chile
A Royal Affair (Magnolia Pictures), Denmark
War Witch (Tribeca Film), Canada

Considering Amour is the only one of these five which was also nominated for Best Picture, it seems pretty clear cut.

Prediction: Amour

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DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
5 Broken Cameras (Kino Lorber), Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics), Nominees to be determined
How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects), Nominees to be determined
The Invisible War (Docurama Films), Nominees to be determined
Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics), Nominees to be determined

Searching for Sugar Man is the movie I’ve heard the most about this year, as far as these nominees are considered.  And since The Imposter wasn’t nominated, which I’ve heard great things about, I’m going with Sugar Man.

Prediction: Searching for Sugar Man

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DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Inocente, Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine
Kings Point, Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider
Mondays at Racine, Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan
Open Heart, Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern
Redemption, Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill

It seems to me that with Short Docs, its mostly the subject matter that gets voted for.  And in this case, Rwandian chldren with ehart problems seems to be pretty serious subject matter.

Prediction: Open Heart

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ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
Adam and Dog, Minkyu Lee
Fresh Guacamole, PES
Head over Heels, Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly
Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”, David Silverman
Paperman, John Kahrs

This is always a fun category.  It appears that the two front runners are Adam and Dog and Paperman.  Sorry Simpsons, but I don’t think you’re getting an Oscar this year.  I am going to go with the Annie award winner in this category, which is Adam and Dog.

Prediction: Adam and Dog

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LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
Asad, Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura
Buzkashi Boys, Sam French and Ariel Nasr
Curfew, Shawn Christensen
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw), Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele
Henry, Yan England

Okay, this one is just a guess.  Most of the ones above are educated guesses at least, but this one is just a flat out guess.  For some reason, Curfew is calling out to me to be the winner.

Prediction: Curfew