My 2010-2011 Oscar Predictions – Part 3: The Story Aspects

The third part of the predictions involves the storytelling through screenplays, editing, and then I threw in cinematography and the music categories just so they fit somewhere.  This year I’ve really noticed that most of these categories comes down to two choices, and of those two its really difficult to predict the winner.  But I’ll give it a shot.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Another Year (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Mike Leigh
The Fighter (Paramount Pictures), Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson; Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
Inception (Warner Bros. Pictures), Written by Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right (Focus Features), Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company), Screenplay by David Seidler

Who would I like to see win? Inception.  What a wonderful, intricate story.  it touched on the complexities of this fabricated dream world while also building on character-driven emotion.  But what do I think will win? The King’s Speech most likely.  Its one of the front runners for best picture, and as such has a really good shot at the writing award here.

Prediction: The King’s Speech

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ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
127 Hours (Fox Searchlight Pictures), Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
The Social Network (Columbia Pictures), Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3 (Disney•Pixar), Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
True Grit (Paramount Pictures), Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Winter’s Bone (Roadside Attractions), Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

This one has to go to Aaron Sorkin.  And I’m not just saying that because I’m a huge fan of his, I’m saying it because he legitimately deserves it.  The dialogue in The Social Network is amazing, as are the story subtleties which drive the characters in this amazing movie.

Prediction: The Social Network

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CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Black Swan (Fox Searchlight Pictures), Matthew Libatique
Inception (Warner Bros. Pictures), Wally Pfister
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company), Danny Cohen
The Social Network (Columbia Pictures), Jeff Cronenweth
True Grit (Paramount Pictures), Roger Deakins

When it comes to cinematography, the Oscars loves wide, sweeping vistas.  (So do I for that matter).  And this year, I believe that True Grit fits the bill.  Black Swan is the dark horse here mind you, and I wouldn’t be surprised to here its name called either.

Prediction: True Grit

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FILM EDITING:
Black Swan (Fox Searchlight Pictures), Andrew Weisblum
The Fighter (Paramount Pictures), Pamela Martin
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company), Tariq Anwar
127 Hours (Fox Searchlight Pictures), Jon Harris
The Social Network (Columbia Pictures), Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter

Best editing is usually awarded to the same movie which wins best picture.  And if you think about it, that makes sense, since editing is so crucial to the quality of storytelling in film.  And yet despite this, I have a strange feeling that Black Swan will win this category even though it has a very slim chance of winning best picture.

Prediction: Black Swan

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ORIGINAL SCORE:
How to Train Your Dragon (DreamWorks Animation), John Powell
Inception (Warner Bros. Pictures), Hans Zimmer
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company), Alexandre Desplat
127 Hours (Fox Searchlight Pictures), A.R. Rahman
The Social Network (Columbia Pictures), Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

This one comes down to Inception vs. Social Network I think.  Which will win?  Well, I think its gotta be Social Network, simply because its so unique and it adds so much to the overall atmosphere of the movie.  Reznor fans, prepare to rejoice.

Prediction: The Social Network

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ORIGINAL SONG:
“Coming Home” from Country Strong (Screen Gems), Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
“I See the Light” from Tangled (Walt Disney Pictures), Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
“If I Rise” from 127 Hours (Fox Searchlight Pictures), Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
“We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3 (Disney•Pixar), Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

And now, my least favourite category.  I think that most people think the Toy Story song will win, and it likely will.  But on the other hand, Tangled may just take this.  For one, the Oscars may throw Disney a bone here and try to help them regain some of their former classic animation glory, since Disney takes such pride in their songs.  And since their two nominations for Princess and the Frog lost in this category last year, they ill probably be granted the win this year.

I did listen to all of these songs while writing this post.  They’re all pretty lame to be honest.  A slow year for movie songs.  Probably why there’s only four nominees instead of the usual five.

Prediction: Tangled