My 2010-2011 Oscar Predictions – Part 1: The Outliers

Another year, another set of Oscar Predictions.  Once again, I will split the 24 categories into 4 posts, going through 6 at a time.   Now remember that I am predicting the choices I believe will win, not which I think should win.  After the Oscars on February 27th I will post my recap.

Part 1: The Outliers
This group is made up of the categories celebrating whole films which are not up for Best Picture.  Like last time, I’ve showcased these first since they usually don’t get a lot of traction at Oscar Season.  These categories killed my percentage last year, but here we go again…

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
How to Train Your Dragon (DreamWorks Animation), Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
The Illusionist (Sony Pictures Classics), Sylvain Chomet
Toy Story 3 (Disney•Pixar), Lee Unkrich

Dreamworks seems to be working hard to catch up to Pixar with this year’s surprisingly great How to Train your Dragon.  However, its going up against Toy Story, the most popular and acclaimed animation franchise of modern times.  And since the first two Toy Story’s came out before this categories inception, there’s no way the Academy isn’t giving the award to them now.

Besides, just like Up last year, this is the only animated film which was also nominated for Best Picture, which alone makes this a no-brainer.

Prediction: Toy Story 3.

–

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Biutiful (Roadside Attractions), Mexico
Dogtooth (Kino International), Greece
In a Better World (Sony Pictures Classics), Denmark
Incendies (Sony Pictures Classics), Canada
Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi) (Cohen Media Group), Algeria

I’m not really sure on this one.  Lately I’ve gone with the most notable (Pan’s Labrynth, White Ribbon) and have been proven wrong.  Yet I’m going to repeat my strategy and see if it pans out this time.  That’s why I’m choosing Biutiful.

Prediction: Biutiful.

–

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Exit Through the Gift Shop (Producers Distribution Agency, Banksy and Jaimie D’Cruz
Gasland (Rooftop Films), Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
Inside Job (Sony Pictures Classics), Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
Restrepo (National Geographic Entertainment), Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
Waste Land (Arthouse Films), Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley

Exit Through the Gift Shop has been getting a lot of buzz, but I believe that this statue will be going to Inside Job.  Its the film festival baby and is likely to win here.

Prediction: Inside Job.

–

DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Killing in the Name, Nominees to be determined
Poster Girl, Nominees to be determined
Strangers No More, Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon
Sun Come Up, Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger
The Warriors of Qiugang, Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon

This category is usually chock-full of important, current issues and this year is no exception, including an expose into suicide bombing.  Killing in the Name seems to be the front-runner, and is certainly a notable current issue, so I’m going to go with that.

Prediction: Killing in the Name

–

ANIMATED SHORT FILM:
Day & Night, Teddy Newton
The Gruffalo, Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
Let’s Pollute, Geefwee Boedoe
The Lost Thing, Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary), Bastien Dubois

We just can’t seem to get away from Pizar come Oscar time.  Toy Story 3 is a clear winner, but the short which  went along with it in the theaters, Day & Night, is also nominated and seems to be the front-runner.  However, the Academy must know the accusations of Pixar favouritism that is constantly on them, so I don’t think it will win.  My prediction goes to a very different film which is apparently quite beautiful with some unique animation styles: Madagascar, a Journey Diary.

Prediction: Madagascar, a Journey Diary

–

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM:
The Confession, Tanel Toom
The Crush, Michael Creagh
God of Love, Luke Matheny
Na Wewe, Ivan Goldschmidt
Wish 143, Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite

I really don’t know anything about these films, so I’m just going to go with what I’ve researched and found to be the front-runner, which is The Confession.

Prediction: The Confession