My Oscar Predictions – Part 4: The Majors

Alright, my last set of predictions.  Here are the 6 major awards, including the acting categories, direction,g and of course, Best Picture.  Unfortunately these are usually the only categories most people care about, but what can you do.  Can I also just say that I really don’t like the 10 nominee system for BP?  That’s too many and its really just a sign of catering to the masses.  Please Academy, go back to five.  Its much more reasonable.

BEST PICTURE:
Avatar (20th Century Fox), A Lightstorm Entertainment Production, James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
The Blind Side (Warner Bros.), An Alcon Entertainment Production, Nominees to be determined
District 9 (TriStar), A Block/Hanson Production, Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
An Education (Sony Pictures Classics), A Finola Dwyer/Wildgaze Films Production, Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
The Hurt Locker (Summit Entertainment), A Voltage Pictures Production, Nominees to be determined
Inglourious Basterds (The Weinstein Company), A Weinstein Company/Universal Pictures/A Band Apart/Zehnte Babelsberg Production, Lawrence Bender, Producer
Precious (Lionsgate), A Lee Daniels Entertainment/Smokewood Entertainment Production, Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
A Serious Man (Focus Features), A Working Title Films Production, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
Up (Disney•Pixar), A Pixar Production, Jonas Rivera, Producer
Up in the Air (Paramount), A Montecito Picture Company Production, Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers

Well, I’ll be honest in saying that I’m not really sure how the ten nominee aspect is going to affect the voting, if at all.  It my be interesting.  Anyways, a lot of people are really starting to believe that Avatar is going to sweep the Oscars and take best picture.  Now, that may happen.  After all, it did happen with Titanic and Return of the King, two other movies which were massively popular around the holiday movie season and raked in the box office.  However, I think that, maybe even because it happened with Titanic and ROTK, that this won’t happen this time.  There is a lot of popularity around Avatar, but this popularity has also spawned a lot of anti-Avatar sentiment very early.  I don’t think it will win.

I see this category coming down to two movies; Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker.  Now, The Hurt Locker made hardly any money, and as much as Box Office shouldn’t be a factor here, it will be.  So I don’t think it will win (nor in my opinion, should it, though I know I’m in the minority with that thinking).  As for Up in the Air, I remember watching the review from A.O. Scott where he described Up in the Air as being a slice of what American life was like at this moment in history,  If the Academy voters also see this film in this way, then I believe that will earn it the Oscar.

Prediction: Up in the Air

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DIRECTING:
James Cameron – Avatar (20th Century Fox)
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air (Paramount)
Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker (Summit Entertainment)
Lee Daniels – Precious  (Lionsgate)
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds (The Weinstein Company)

Now usually, whatever film wins for best directer also wins best picture.  That is often the case, but not always.  And its been happening more often lately, happening in 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2005.  Going by this recent pattern, its due to happen again.  I think that even though Up in the Air wins for BP and screenplay, the directing award will go to Katheryn Bigalow for The Hurt Locker.  Why?  Just a feeling.  And like I said, a BP/BD split is due to happen again.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

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ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart (Fox Searchlight)
George Clooney – Up in the Air (Paramount)
Colin Firth – A Single Man (The Weinstein Company)
Morgan Freeman – Invictus (Warner Bros.)
Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker (Summit Entertainment)

Well, Jeff Bridges has been getting a lot of momentum coming into award season, winning both the Golden Globe and the SAG award, so he will win here too.  Sure Morgan Freeman has the perfect Oscar-baiting role as they love to give the win to someone emulating a another famous person, but I don’t think it will work this year.  A lot of people want Jeremy Renner to win (not sure why), and George Clooney is always a favourite, but Jeff Bridges is a well-respected and great actor.  This year is his.

Prediction: Crazy Heart

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ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side (Warner Bros.)
Helen Mirren – The Last Station (Sony Pictures Classics)
Carey Mulligan – An Education (Sony Pictures Classics)
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious (Lionsgate)
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia (Columbia Pictures)

From everything I hear, Carey Mulligan should be winning this award.  But she won’t.  Why?  She is going to be robbed by Sandra Bullock.  Everyone who knows the Oscars knows taht these acting categories can be really political.  Sandra Bullock is a well-liked veteran actress, and lets face it, is she likely to have the chance to be nominated here again?  Probably not, and so the Academy is going to take this opportunity to award her the win.

Prediction: The Blind Side

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ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Matt Damon – Invictus (Warner Bros.)
Woody Harrelson – The Messenger (Oscilloscope)
Christopher Plummer – The Last Station (Sony Pictures Classics)
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones (Paramount)
Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds (The Weinstein Company)

This is usually one of the most interesting categories, as supporting role can offer a wide variety of very interesting performances (look at last years winner with Heath Ledger’s Joker, or the year before with Javier Bardem’s Chigurh).  We have another fantastic villainous role again this year.  Christoph Waltz should and will win.  He was fantastic; both hilarious at times and menacing at others, and finding just the right balance between the two.  He was so much fun to watch and hate.  There will be outrage from a lot of people if he does not win.

Prediction: Inglourious Basterds

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ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
Penelope Cruz – Nine (The Weinstein Company)
Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air (Paramount)
Maggie Gyllenhaal – Crazy Heart (Fox Searchlight)
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air (Paramount)
Mo’Nique – Precious (Lionsgate)

Mo’nique will win.  She won the Golden Globe and the SAG, and she will win this one as well.  Its that simple.

Prediction: Precious