Ian's Movie Reviews
Short Reviews of Movies, Board Games, and Other Stuff

My Oscar Predictions – Part 1:The Outliers

Alright, it is time to make my Oscar Predictions.  I will split the 24 categories into 4 posts, going through 6 at a time.   Now remember that I am predicting the choices I believe will win, not which I think should win.  After the Oscars on March 7th I will post my recap.

Part 1: The Outliers
This group is made up of the categories celebrating whole films which are not up for Best Picture.  For the most part no one pays much attention to these categories (except perhaps Best Animated Feature), so I thought I would put them up front.

Coraline (Focus Features), Henry Selick
Fantastic Mr. Fox (Fox Searchlight), Wes Anderson
The Princess and the Frog (Walt Disney), John Musker and Ron Clements
The Secret of the Kells (GDKIDS), Tomm Moore
Up (Disney•Pixar), Pete Docter

Will Pixar continue its domination of this category? Yes, yes it will.  And why? Because Up is a brilliant film.  Coraline is the other movie here with a dark horse chance, but lets face it; none of the other nominees here were also nominatied for Best Picture besides up.  Up will win.

Prediction: Up.

Ajami (Kino International), An Inosan Production, Israel
El Secreto de sus Ojos (Sony Pictures Classics), A Haddock Films Production, Argentina
The Milk of Sorrow, A Wanda Visión/Oberon Cinematogràfica/Vela Production, Peru
Une Prophéte (Sony Pictures Classics), A Why Not/Page 114/Chic Films Production, France
The White Ribbon (Sony Pictures Classics), An X Filme Creative Pool/Wega Film/Les Films du Losange/Lucky Red Production, Germany

This one also seems pretty clear cut to me.  The White Ribbon is the only one here which has really gained any notoriety,  mostly because of the fame of its director Haneke.  This has been getting rave reviews and is likely to win here.

Prediction: The White Ribbon.

Burma VJ (Oscilloscope Laboratories), A Magic Hour Films Production, Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller
The Cove (Roadside Attractions), An Oceanic Preservation Society Production, Nominees to be determined
Food, Inc. (Magnolia Pictures), A Robert Kenner Films Production, Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers (First Run Features ), A Kovno Communications Production, Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
Which Way Home, A Mr. Mudd Production, Rebecca Cammisa

Best Doc has been getting more and more attention, mostly because of the rise of the Moore films and other popular docs such as Super Size Me and Murderball.  There are two here which have gained a lot of popularity here, both of which are probably the two contenders for winning;  The Cove and Food Inc.  I think The Cove will take this one.

Prediction: The Cove.

China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province, A Downtown Community Television Center Production, Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner, A Just Media Production, Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant, A Community Media Production, Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
Music by Prudence, An iThemba Production, Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
Rabbit à la Berlin (Deckert Distribution), An MS Films Production, Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra

Alright, I plead ignorance on the next three categories, not knowing much about them.  But I have been doing some research, so I think my guesses are educated.  From those in the documentary milieu, the buzz is that Rabbit a la Berlin will be taking this, so that is what I will say as well.

Prediction: Rabbit a la Berlin

French Roast, A Pumpkin Factory/Bibo Films Production, Fabrice O. Joubert
Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty (Brown Bag Films), A Brown Bag Films Production, Nicky Phelan and Darragh O’Connell
The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte), A Kandor Graphics and Green Moon Production, Javier Recio Gracia
Logorama (Autour de Minuit), An Autour de Minuit Production, Nicolas Schmerkin
A Matter of Loaf and Death (Aardman Animations), An Aardman Animations Production, Nick Park

French Roast seems to have some very vocal supporters, but lets face it; the Academy loves Wallace and Grommit, who have already won 3 out of the 4 times nominated here.  A Matter of Loaf and Death will probably win.

Prediction: A Matter of Loaf and Death

The Door (Network Ireland Television), An Octagon Films Production, Juanita Wilson and James Flynn
Instead of Abracadabra (The Swedish Film Institute), A Directörn & Fabrikörn Production, Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström
Kavi, A Gregg Helvey Production, Gregg Helvey
Miracle Fish (Premium Films), A Druid Films Production, Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
The New Tenants, A Park Pictures and M & M Production, Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson

From the sounds of it, The Response should be the winner here, but it didn’t make the final cut.  So I will say that Kavi will win on the heels of Slumdog Millionaire.

Prediction: Kavi

2 Responses to “My Oscar Predictions – Part 1:The Outliers”

  1. Have a look at the following prediction. Or should I say science. This guy claims he knows the results – http://blog.tomedes.com/oscar-winner-2010-best-foreign-language-film/

  2. Well, if he’s going by pure stats, he has a case. But some thought to content has to go into the prediction.

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